Spatial-temporal change and prediction of carbon stock in the ecosystem of Xi’an based on PLUS and InVEST models
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摘要: 土地利用通过影响陆地生态系统结构布局和功能引起碳储量变化,研究土地利用变化与碳储量的关系对优化区域土地利用格局、合理生态决策具有重要意义。文章运用PLUS模型结合InVEST模型预测了西安市未来不同情景下土地利用及碳储量时空变化特征,研究了土地利用变化对碳储量的影响。结果表明: 建设用地扩张,高碳密度用地转移使得2000—2015年西安市碳储量减少了2.49×106 t,在自然增长情景下碳储量持续下降,2015—2030年将减少2.14×106 t; 由于生态保护情景采取措施保护用地、控制转移,碳储量增加了6.92×105 t; 耕地保护情景下,耕地得到保护,但林地和草地等高碳密度用地受到建设用地扩张影响使得碳储量下降为1.60×108 t。碳密度变化分析得出,采取生态保护措施,使得碳密度变化率有所提高,相比于自然增长情景,生态保护情景将碳密度的增长区占比由0.05%提高到1.57%,以高增长区为主。而耕地保护情景碳密度有所下降,增长区由高增长转变为较高增长。在保护耕地的基础上,西安市未来土地利用规划应适当采取生态保护措施,控制建设用地向耕地和林地的高速扩张,优化土地利用格局,有效降低碳储量损失,提高区域碳储量水平,实现区域可持续发展。Abstract: Land use can cause carbon stock changes by affecting the structural layouts and functions of terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, research on the relationship between land use changes and carbon stock is greatly significant for optimizing regional land use patterns and making sensible ecological decisions. This study predicted the spatial-temporal changing characteristics of land use and carbon stock in Xi’an under different scenarios in the future using the PLUS and InVEST models and investigated the impact of land use changes on carbon stock. The results are as follows. From 2000 to 2015, the expansion of construction land and the transfer of high-carbon-density land reduced the carbon stock of Xi’an by 2.49×106 t. From 2015 to 2030 the carbon stock continuously declined by 2.14×106 t in the natural growth scenario, and the carbon stock of Xi’an will increase by 6.92×105 t in the ecological protection scenario due to the measures taken for land protection and transfer control. In the cultivated land protection scenario, the cultivated land will be protected, but the high-carbon-density land such as woodland and grassland will be affected by the expansion of construction land during 2015—2030, reducing the carbon stock to 1.60×108 t. As indicated by the analysis of carbon density change, ecological protection measures can increase the changing rate of carbon density. Compared with the natural growth scenario, the ecological protection scenario will increase the proportion of areas with increased carbon density (mainly high-increase areas) from 0.05% to 1.57%. By contrast, under the cultivated land protection scenario, the carbon density will decrease, and high-increase areas will be transformed into moderately-high-increase areas. Based on cultivated land protection, it is necessary to take proper ecological protection measures in the future land use planning of Xi’an to control the rapid expansion of construction land from cultivated and forest land. Optimizing land use patterns can effectively reduce the loss of carbon stock, improve the level of regional carbon stock, and achieve regional sustainable development.
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Key words:
- land use change /
- PLUS model /
- InVEST model /
- Xi’an City /
- carbon storage
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