Development characteristics and potential risks of Dankanongba glacial lake in Bomi, Tibet
-
摘要:
冰湖溃决是青藏高原的典型山地灾害之一，严重威胁川藏交通廊道的安全。开展沿线地区的冰湖灾害调查和溃决风险评估，并制定针对性的防控对策十分必要。选取西藏波密的丹卡弄巴冰湖为研究对象，通过遥感解译、野外调查、工程地质类比、数值模拟等方法，查明了冰湖、冰川积雪区、形成流通区、堆积区等分区流域的发育特征，提出了丹卡弄巴具有发生冰湖溃决和形成泥石流的条件，揭示了高位冰崩、冰川跃动、雪崩等是引发冰湖溃决的主要诱因类型，计算了终碛垄发生全溃的洪水流量曲线，模拟了泥石流在下游沟道的演进过程。结果显示，冰湖全溃条件下形成的泥石流将对堆积区28户85人造成淤埋的直接危害，还将挤占帕隆藏布河，造成主河偏流，对右岸沿河的川藏交通廊道及其附属设施等造成路基水毁的间接危害。对川藏交通廊道沿线冰湖发育区开展灾害调查和风险评估进行初步探索，可供西藏国土空间风险管控、水利水电开发、冰湖景区选址等冰湖灾害评价提供借鉴。
Abstract:Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is one of the serious mountain disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which seriously threatens the safety of the Sichuan-Tibet arterial traffic which is under construction recently.Therefore, it is necessary to carry out professional investigation and assessment of these potential hazard glacial lakes above the railway, and formulate targeted prevention and control countermeasures.The Dankanongba glacial lake in Bomi was selected as the research object, through remote sensing interpretation, field investigation, engineering geological analogy and numerical simulation, to investigate the background characteristics of glacial lake, glacier and snow covered zones, formation and transportation zones and accumulation zones.It is proposed that Dankarongba has the conditions for glacial lake breach and debris flow formation.It is also revealed that high-place glacier collapse, glacier surge and snow avalanche are the main inducement types of GLOF.Based on the calculation of flood discharge of the end moraine breach, the evolution process of debris flow in the downstream channel is also simulated.The results of numerical calculation and analysis show that the debris flow formed under the condition of GLOF will cause direct damage to 85 people of 28 households in the accumulation area.It will also cause diversion of the main stream and indirect damage to the Sichuan-Tibet arterial traffic and their ancillary facilities by the right bank of the river.A preliminary exploration on how to carry out disaster investigation and potential assessment in the glacial lake areas above the Sichuan-Tibet arterial traffic is carried out, which can be used for reference in the natural resource management, water conservancy and hydropower development, glacial lake scenic spot location and other glacial lake disaster assessment in Tibet.
-
Key words:
- Glacial lake outburst flood /
- glacier hazard /
- debris flow /
- Tibet Plateau
-
-
表 1 丹卡弄巴冰湖库容计算方法及结果
Table 1. Calculation methods and results of Dankanongba glacial lake storage capacity
冰湖基本参数 冰湖库容计算方法 文献[17] 几何计算 长度L/m 宽度W/m 水深H/m 侧碛垄坡度i/° 计算参数 库容/104 m3 计算参数 库容/104 m3 850 282 38 20 L、W 485 L、W、H、i 568 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 模型输入参数
Table 2. Model input parameters
输入参数 数值 输入参数 数值 坝顶宽/m 20 初始溃口深度/m 2 溃口边坡/° 45 初始溃口底宽/m 1 曼宁系数 0.045 临界剪切应力τc/Pa 30 坝体下游坡比 0.3249 含量占90%与30%的颗粒粒径之比d90/d30 40 冰湖湖面面积/m2 A(Zs)-h 平均粒径d50/m 0.01 初始溃口顶宽/m 3 孔隙比e 0.493 注：A(Zs)-h表示冰湖水深与面积的动态相关关系
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 王世金, 汪宙峰. 冰湖溃决灾害综合风险评估与管控——以中国喜马拉雅山区为例[M]. 北京: 中国社会科学出版社, 2017.
[2] 程尊兰, 田金昌, 张正波, 等. 藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流形成的气候因素与发展趋势[J]. 地学前缘, 2009, 16(6): 207-214. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1005-2321.2009.06.023
[3] 李德基, 游勇. 西藏波密米堆冰湖溃决浅议[J]. 山地研究, 1992, (4): 219-224. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDYA199204003.htm
[4] 孙美平, 刘时银, 姚晓军, 等. 2013年西藏嘉黎县"7.5"冰湖溃决洪水成因及潜在危害[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(1): 158-165. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT201401020.htm
[5] 刘建康, 周路旭, 张佳佳, 等. 西藏嘉黎吉翁错冰湖溃决机制特征[J]. 地质论评, 2021, 67(z1): 17-18. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP2021S1008.htm
[6] Huggel C, Haeberli W, Kääb A, et al. An assessment procedure for glacial hazards in the Swiss Alps[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 2004, 41(6): 1068-1083. doi: 10.1139/t04-053
[7] Wang S, Che Y, Ma X. Integrated risk assessment of glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) disaster over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP)[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17(12): 2849-2863. doi: 10.1007/s10346-020-01443-1
[8] Fread D L. DAMBRK: The NWS Dam-Break Flood Forecasting Model[M]. Silver Spring, Maryland: U.S. National Weather Service, Hydologic Research Laboratory, 1982: 1-56.
[9] Fread D L. BREACH: An Erosion Model For Earthen Dam Failures[M]. Silver Spring, Maryland: U.S. National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hydologic Research Laboratory, 1991: 1-35.
[10] 周路旭, 刘建康, 李元灵, 等. 川藏交通廊道龙利空泽错冰碛湖溃决危险性评价[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2020, 36(6): 38-45, 53. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLGT202006006.htm
[11] Liu J, You Y, Chen X, et al. Characteristics and hazard prediction of large-scale debris flow of Xiaojia Gully in Yingxiu Town, Sichuan Province, China[J]. Engineering Geology, 2014, 180: 55-67. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.03.017
[12] 许晓君, 胡卸文, 许泽鹏, 等. 四川壤塘县石吾陇沟泥石流启动条件与堵河程度分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2019, 30(3): 44-53. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGDH201903010.htm
[13] 王世金, 秦大河, 任贾文. 冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望[J]. 水科学进展, 2012, 23(5): 735-742. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKXJ201205023.htm
[14] 铁永波, 唐川. 冰湖溃决评价体系研究进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2009, 20(3): 448-452. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2009.03.024
[15] 王欣, 刘时银. 冰碛湖溃决灾害研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(4): 626-635. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT200704018.htm
[16] 刘建康, 周路旭. 国内外冰碛湖溃决研究进展[J]. 探矿工程(岩土钻掘工程), 2018, 45(8): 44-50. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TKGC201808011.htm
[17] 周路旭, 刘建康, 李元灵. 一种冰碛湖库容计算方法的探讨[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2020, 29(3): 162-172.
[18] 任金卫, 沈军, 曹忠权, 等. 西藏东南部嘉黎断裂新知[J]. 地震地质, 2000, 22(4): 344-350. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZDZ200004001.htm
[19] 吕儒仁. 西藏泥石流与环境[M]. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社, 1999.
[20] 王军朝, 刘建康, 陈龙, 等. 国道G318暨重要城镇(林芝市)地质灾害调查研究成果图集[M]. 成都: 成都地图出版社, 2019.
[21] 邬光剑, 姚檀栋, 王伟财, 等. 青藏高原及周边地区的冰川灾害[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2019, 34(11): 1285-1292. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KYYX201911012.htm
[22] 刘建康, 张佳佳, 高波, 等. 我国西藏地区冰湖溃决灾害综述[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(6): 1335-1347. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-BCDT201906006.htm
[23] 施雅风, 杨宗辉, 谢自楚, 等. 西藏古乡地区的冰川泥石流[J]. 科学通报, 1964, (6): 542-544. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB196406017.htm
[24] 刘传正, 吕杰堂, 童立强, 等. 雅鲁藏布江色东普沟崩滑-碎屑流堵江灾害初步研究[J]. 中国地质, 2019, 46(2): 7-22. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DIZI201902002.htm
[25] 张文敬. 南迦巴瓦峰跃动冰川的某些特征[J]. 山地研究, 1985, (4): 46-50. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDYA198504006.htm
[26] Kääb A, Leinss S, Gilbert A, et al. Massive collapse of two glaciers in western Tibet in 2016 after surge-like instability[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2018, 11: 114-120. http://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/global-change-debates/Sources/Mountain-glaciers/s41561-017-0039-7.pdf
[27] 黄润秋, 许强. 中国典型灾难性滑坡[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008.
[28] Richardson S D, Reynolds J M. An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas[J]. Quaternary International, 2000, 65: 31-47. http://www.existencia.org/files/sd/floods/richardson.pdf
[29] 宋兵, 沈军辉, 李金洋, 等. RAMMS在泥石流运动模拟中的应用——以白沙沟泥石流为例[J]. 泥沙研究, 2018, 43(1): 32-37. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NSYJ201801006.htm
-
图(6)
表(2)
计量
- 文章访问数: 1764
- PDF下载数: 10
- 施引文献: 0