基于变权重−云模型的岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险评估——以中梁山隧道为例

李慧, 魏兴萍, 刘程, 李良鑫. 基于变权重−云模型的岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险评估——以中梁山隧道为例[J]. 中国岩溶, 2023, 42(3): 548-557, 572. doi: 10.11932/karst20230306
引用本文: 李慧, 魏兴萍, 刘程, 李良鑫. 基于变权重−云模型的岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险评估——以中梁山隧道为例[J]. 中国岩溶, 2023, 42(3): 548-557, 572. doi: 10.11932/karst20230306
LI Hui, WEI Xingping, LIU Cheng, LI Liangxin. Risk assessment of water inrush disasters of karst tunnels based on variable weight-cloud model: A case study of Zhongliangshan tunnel[J]. Carsologica Sinica, 2023, 42(3): 548-557, 572. doi: 10.11932/karst20230306
Citation: LI Hui, WEI Xingping, LIU Cheng, LI Liangxin. Risk assessment of water inrush disasters of karst tunnels based on variable weight-cloud model: A case study of Zhongliangshan tunnel[J]. Carsologica Sinica, 2023, 42(3): 548-557, 572. doi: 10.11932/karst20230306

基于变权重−云模型的岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险评估——以中梁山隧道为例

  • 基金项目: 重庆市自然科学基金项目(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0616);国家自然科学基金项目(42107355,41202135);重庆师大学三春湖创新项目(202201465)
详细信息
    作者简介: 李慧(1999-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事岩溶地质灾害研究。E-mail:lh24253153@126.com
    通讯作者: 魏兴萍(1974-),女,博士,教授,主要从事岩溶地质灾害研究。E-mail:xingpingwei@126.com
  • 中图分类号: U456;U458.1

Risk assessment of water inrush disasters of karst tunnels based on variable weight-cloud model: A case study of Zhongliangshan tunnel

More Information
  • 针对岩溶隧道涌突水的致险因素的不确定性、复杂性和隧道涌突水风险评价的主观性,以成渝中线中梁山岩溶隧道工程为背景,建立基于正态云模型的隧道涌突水风险评价方法。通过选取地层岩性、地质构造、地表汇水条件、隧道空间位置、地下水循环交替条件作为风险影响因素,构建涌突水风险评估体系;基于正态云模型确定的各影响因子数字特征及变权向量计算综合隶属度,最终判定岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险等级。结果表明:成渝中线中梁山隧道涌突水灾害为“II级”与“Ⅴ级”之间,涌突水灾害发生可能性大且危害高,与实际开挖结果一致。文章构建的岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险评估方法,实现了多元决策下的隧道涌突水灾害风险分级客观性,适合岩溶隧道的风险评估,为日后隧道质量控制和寿命评估提供参考。

  • 加载中
  • 图 1  成渝中线中梁山隧道隧址区位置图

    Figure 1. 

    图 2  中梁山岩溶隧道水文地质剖面图

    Figure 2. 

    图 3  中梁山岩溶隧道涌突水风险评估指标体系

    Figure 3. 

    图 4  单影响因子典型云模型

    Figure 4. 

    表 1  岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险影响因素及分级标准

    Table 1.  Influencing factors and classification standards of water inrush disaster in karst tunnels

    影响因素无风险(Ⅰ级)轻度风险(Ⅱ级)中度风险(Ⅲ级)高度风险(Ⅳ级)最高风险(Ⅴ级)
    II1I111~44~88~1212~1616~20
    I121~44~88~1212~1616~20
    I21~44~77~1212~1717~20
    I3I311~66~1010~1414~1717~20
    I321~44~66~1010~1414~17
    I3320~1617~1414~1010~44~1
    I420~1818~1414~88~33~1
    I520~1616~1212~88~44~1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 2  岩溶隧道涌突水影响因素正态云模型数字特征

    Table 2.  Digital characteristics of normal cloud model for influencing factors of water inrush in karst tunnels

    影响因素Ⅰ级Ⅱ级Ⅲ级Ⅳ级Ⅴ级
    (Ex,En,He)(Ex,En,He)(Ex,En,He)(Ex,En,He)(Ex,En,He)
    I11(2.5,0.5,0.01)(6,0.66,0.01)(10,0.66,0.01)(14,0.66,0.01)(18,0.66,0.01)
    I12(2.5,0.5,0.01)(6,0.66,0.01)(10,0.66,0.01)(14,0.66,0.01)(18,0.66,0.01)
    I2(2.5,0.5,0.01)(5.5,0.5,0.01)(9.5,0.83,0.01)(14.5,0.83,0.01)(18.5,0.5,0.01)
    I31(3.5,0.83,0.01)(8,0.66,0.01)(12,0.66,0.01)(15.5,0.5,0.01)(18.5,0.5,0.01)
    I32(3.5,0.5,0.01)(5,0.33,0.01)(8,0.66,0.01)(12,0.66,0.01)(15.5,0.5,0.01)
    I33(18.5,0.5,0.01)(15.5,0.5,0.01)(12,0.66,0.01)(7,1,0.01)(2.5,0.5,0.01)
    I419,0.33,0.01)(16,066,0.01)(11,1,0.01)(5.5,0.83,0.01)(2,0.33,0.01)
    I5(18,0.66,0.01)(14,0.66,0.01)(10,0.66,0.01)(6,0.66,0.01)(2.5,0.5,0.01)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 3  岩溶隧道涌突水灾害影响因素基本参数

    Table 3.  Basic parameters of influencing factors of water inrush disasters in karst tunnels

    隧道DK14+720~
    DK15+630
    DK15+630~
    DK15+680
    DK15+680~
    DK16+020
    DK16+020~
    DK16+460
    DK16+460~
    DK16+750
    DK16+750~
    DK16+785
    DK16+785~
    DK17+380
    I1119519818.5818.5
    I1218151815181518
    I2188171217817
    I3116718518715
    I326224242
    I336121285314
    I414151315141218
    I5151515917157
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 4  岩溶隧道涌突水灾害影响因素参数值归一化结果

    Table 4.  Normalized parameter values of influencing factors of water inrush disasters in karst tunnels

    隧道DK14+720~
    DK15+630
    DK15+630~
    DK15+680
    DK15+680~
    DK16+020
    DK16+020~
    DK16+460
    DK16+460~
    DK16+750
    DK16+750~
    DK16+785
    DK16+785~
    DK17+380
    I110.950.210.950.370.920.370.92
    I120.890.740.890.740.890.740.89
    I20.890.370.840.580.840.370.84
    I310.790.320.890.210.890.320.74
    I320.310.060.060.190.060.190.06
    I330.260.580.580.370.210.110.68
    I40.680.740.630.740.680.580.89
    I50.740.740.740.420.840.740.32
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 5  岩溶隧道涌突水灾害风险等级综合隶属度级评估结果

    Table 5.  Assessment of comprehensive membership grades of water inrush disasters in karst tunnels

    隧道DK14+720~
    DK15+630
    DK15+630~
    DK15+680
    DK15+680~
    DK16+020
    DK16+020~
    DK16+460
    DK16+460~
    DK16+750
    DK16+750~
    DK16+785
    DK16+785~
    DK17+380
    I级0.000 50.010 50.007 00.092 90.041 8 0.059 60.013 1
    II级0.104 50.225 60.098 80.091 90.062 80.174 20.070 4
    III级0.012 90.122 40.086 50.059 80.006 60.098 90.007 1
    Ⅳ级0.098 60.047 40.006 80.110 40.029 60.043 50.092 1
    Ⅴ级0.147 20.000 50.154 70.000 40.172 00.058 70.125 6
    风险等级Ⅴ级II级Ⅴ级III级Ⅴ级II级Ⅴ级
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
收稿日期:  2022-01-12
录用日期:  2022-08-04
刊出日期:  2023-06-25

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