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摘要:
研究目的 中国钛资源较丰富，但多为共生型原矿，品位低，主要以原生钛（磁）铁矿型的形式存在。中国作为钛矿消费大国，对未来钛资源消费量预测的研究具有重要意义。
研究方法 本文从钛矿资源产业链出发，在综合分析中国钛矿地质特征、应用领域、工序现状和市场贸易的基础上，采用部门分析法、“S”形预测法、ARIMA预测方法，对2021—2030年钛的消费量进行预测。
研究结果 根据预测结果得出如下认识：（1）中国钛白粉和钛精矿（TiO2）的消费量将在2027年达到顶峰分别为302.12万t和479.1万t；（2）海绵钛的消费量将在未来10年保持继续增长的趋势。
结论 通过展望钛矿资源产业发展方向，提出了确保钛矿产品稳定供应，引进先进技术和工艺装备，推动产业各环节的技术创新，将更高的环境和治理标准纳入生产环节中等对策建议。
Abstract:This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
Objective China's titanium resources are relatively abundant, but they are mostly co-produced primary ores with low grades, mainly in the form of primary titanium (magnetite) iron ore type. As a major consumer of titanium ore, the study of future titanium resource consumption projections is of great significance.
Methods Based on a comprehensive analysis of the geological characteristics, application areas, current process and market trade of titanium ore in China, we adopt the sectoral analysis method, the "S" shaped forecasting method and the ARIMA forecasting method to forecast China's titanium consumption from 2021 to 2030. The forecast is based on sectoral analysis, the "S" shaped forecast method and the ARIMA forecast method.
Results Based on the forecast results, the following observations were made: (1) the consumption of titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate (TiO2) in China will peak at 3.02 million tons and 4.79 million tons respectively in 2027; (2) the consumption of titanium sponge will continue to grow in the next decade.
Conclusion By looking ahead to the development direction of the titanium ore resource industry, suggestions are made to ensure a stable supply of titanium ore products, introduce advanced technology and process equipment, promote technological innovation in all aspects of the industry, and incorporate higher environmental and governance standards into the production chain, among other countermeasures.
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表 1 以HHI值为基准的市场结构分类标准
Table 1. Classification standard of market structure based on HHI value
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表 4 不同场景下未来十年钛白粉消费量（万t）预测
Table 4. Forecast of titanium dioxide consumption in the next decade under different growth model (ten thousand tons)
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表 5 钛精矿消费量预测值（万t）
Table 5. Predicted value of consumption of titanium concentrate (ten thousand tons)
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