湖南省自然灾害风险可接受程度研究

刘健康; 刘丙秋; 匡文龙; 肖拥军; 林云志; 卢正新

doi:10.12401/j.nwg.2023047

湖南省自然灾害风险可接受程度研究

1.
中化地质矿山总局湖南地质勘查院，湖南长沙 410018

2.
湖南科技大学，地球科学与空间信息工程学院，湖南湘潭　411201

基金项目: 湖南省自然科学基金项目“库岸斜坡软弱夹层泥化损伤机制及工程效应研究”（2020JJ4298），“高温矿山渗滤液条件下膨润土防水毯的渗透性能变化规律及其机理研究”（2022JJ30244），湖南省自然资源科技计划项目“基于高分遥感影像的矿山越界开采动态监测”（2022-23）联合资助。

详细信息

作者简介: 刘健康（1997−），男，硕士，助理工程师，主要从事自然灾害及地质灾害研究。E–mail：1666824931@qq.com

通讯作者: 匡文龙（1966−），男，教授，博士/博士后。主要从事自然灾害及地质灾害研究。E–mail： 64022885@qq.com。

中图分类号: X43;X820.4

收稿日期: 2022-11-10

修回日期: 2023-02-28

录用日期: 2023-03-28

刊出日期: 2024-02-20

Study on the Acceptability of Natural Disaster Risk in Hunan Province

1.
Hunan Geological Exploration Institute of CCGMB, Changsha 410018, Hunan, China

2.
School of Earth Science and Spatail Information Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, Hunan, China

More Information

Corresponding author: KUANG Wenlong, 64022885@qq.com

Received Date: 10 November 2022

Revised Date: 28 February 2023

Accepted Date: 28 March 2023

Publish Date: 20 February 2024

摘要

摘要:
自然灾害是湖南省面临的主要灾害之一，确定自然灾害风险可接受程度对该省的可持续发展意义重大。通过分析湖南省2010~2020年因灾死亡人数与经济损失、总人口、GDP等数据，参照国内外相关研究，开展自然灾害风险可接受水平研究。取意愿系数β=0.01，确定个人生命可接受风险标准；使用人均GDP这一指标，量化个人可接受经济风险；根据最低合理可行准则，分别构建社会生命与经济风险可接受准则模型。结果表明：个人可接受和可容忍生命风险分别为10⁻⁶/a和10⁻⁵/a；个人可接受经济风险指数为0.01，即个人经济风险的可接受风险范围不超过人均GDP的1%；因灾死亡100人的概率大于10⁻⁹、经济损失10亿元的概率大于10⁻²都属于不可接受风险。研究结果可用于辅助湖南省自然灾害风险的评估、决策与管理，也为其他地区相关研究提供参考。
- 自然灾害 /
- 风险 /
- 可接受程度 /
- F-N曲线 /
- F-D曲线 /
- 湖南省
Abstract:
Natural disasters are one of the main disasters faced by Hunan Province, and determining the acceptable level of natural disaster risks is of great significance to the sustainable development of the province. By analyzing the data of the number of disaster death and economic losses, total population, and GDP in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020, and referring to relevant domestic and foreign researches, a study on the acceptable level of natural disaster risk was carried out.The willingness coefficient β=0.01 is taken to fix the acceptable risk standard for personal life; the per capita GDP is used to quantify the acceptable economic risk for individuals; according to the minimum reasonable and feasible criteria, models of acceptable criteria for social life and economic risk are respectively constructed.The results show that the personal acceptable and tolerable life risks are 10⁻⁶/a and 10⁻⁵/a respectively, that the personal acceptable economic risk index is 0.01, i.e. the acceptable risk range of personal economic risk does not exceed 1% of per capita GDP; and that the probability of 100 deaths due to the disaster greater than 10⁻⁹, and the probability of economic loss of 1 billion yuan greater than 10⁻², are unacceptable risks.The research results can be used to assist the assessment, decision-making and management of natural disaster risks in Hunan Province.
- natural disaster /
- risk /
- acceptability /
- F-N curves /
- F-D curves /
- Hunan Province

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图 1 湖南省自然灾害分类图

Figure 1.

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图 2 风险等级和ALARP准则

Figure 2.

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图 3 不同类型活动和主动参与程度、获取利益不同时的意愿系数

Figure 3.

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图 4 湖南省自然灾害社会生命风险可接受准则模型

Figure 4.

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图 5 湖南省2010~2020年人均灾害损失与人均GDP比值关系图

Figure 5.

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图 6 湖南省自然灾害社会经济风险可接受准则模型

Figure 6.

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表 1 2010～2020年湖南省自然灾害致死人数和总人口情况表

Table 1. Death toll and total population of natural disasters in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020

年度	自然灾害致死人数（人）	户籍人口（万人）	死亡概率（10⁻⁷）
2010	80	7089.53	11.28
2011	84	7135.60	11.77
2012	62	7179.87	8.64
2013	46	7147.28	6.44
2014	67	7202.29	9.30
2015	31	7242.02	4.28
2016	51	7318.81	6.97
2017	98	7296.26	13.43
2018	27	7326.62	3.69
2019	31	7319.53	4.24
2020	28	7295.58	3.84

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表 2 部分研究者所提自然灾害个人可接受风险标准建议表

Table 2. Suggestions on personal acceptable risk standards for natural disasters proposed by some researchers

研究者	适用范围	可接受风险	可容忍风险
赵洲等（2011）	地质灾害	10⁻⁶/a	10⁻⁴/a
谢全敏（2004）	滑坡	10⁻⁶/a	10⁻⁵/a
庙成等（2022）	泥石流	10⁻⁷/a	-
李东升等（2006）	滑坡	10⁻⁵/a	-
刘莉等（2009）	地震	10⁻⁴/a	10⁻²/a
王健（2013）	洪涝	10⁻⁶/a	10⁻⁵/a

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表 3 社会风险的厌恶因子取值

Table 3. Value of aversion factor of social risk

风险类型	厌恶因子	公众对可接受风险的要求	与小事故相比社会对重大事故后果关注度
中立型	1	一般	一致
厌恶型	1.5	较高	比较突出
厌恶型	2	很高	显著突出

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表 4 不同国家和地区的F-N曲线参数

Table 4. F-N curve parameters in different countries and regions

国家或地区
英国（HSC）	1	10⁻²
中国香港	1	10⁻³
丹麦	2	10⁻³
荷兰（VROM）	2	10⁻⁴
注：VORM为荷兰住宅、空间计划与环境部。

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表 5 2010~2020年湖南省自然灾害经济损失与GDP统计表

Table 5. Economic loss and GDP of natural disasters in Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020

年度	自然灾害经济损失（万元）	全省年度生产总值（亿元）	人均GDP （元）	人均灾害损失（元）	自然灾害经济损失占比（10⁻³）
2010	2890006	15574.32	24005	407.64	18.56
2011	2670254	18914.96	28766	372.22	14.12
2012	1491346	21207.23	32203	207.71	7.03
2013	2831947	23545.24	35702	396.23	12.03
2014	2064575	25881.28	39181	286.66	7.98
2015	1268488	28538.60	43155	175.16	4.44
2016	2656197	30853.45	46606	362.93	8.61
2017	5879514	33828.11	51030	805.83	17.38
2018	650917	36329.68	54763	88.84	1.79
2019	2435550	39894.14	60104	332.75	6.11
2020	1663373	41781.49	62900	228	3.98
注：数据引自湖南自然资源年鉴与湖南统计年鉴。

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