Application of Geological Hazard Risk Assessment in Territorial Space Planning: A Case Study of Gaoxigou Village in Yulin City of Northern Shaanxi Province
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摘要:
榆林市米脂县高西沟村位于黄土高原丘陵沟壑区，属于地质灾害多发区，因此，考虑地质灾害风险的国土空间规划具有极其重要的意义。笔者基于地质灾害调查数据，选取坡度、坡向、地质灾害发育密度等评价指标，采用信息量模型以斜坡单元进行危险性评价，在此基础上叠加承灾体易损性进行定量风险评价，划定地质灾害风险分区。利用ArcGIS将地质灾害风险区划与现状功能区叠加，将高西沟重构为4个国土空间分区：地质灾害中风险–生活居住区、地质灾害低风险–生态功能区、地质灾害低风险–农业生产区和沟谷区，并提出国土空间优化策略。
Abstract:Gaoxigou village of Mizhi county in Yulin city, is located in the hilly and gully region of the Loess plateau. It is a geological disaster prone area. Therefore, it is of great importance to consider the risk of geological disaster in territorial space planning. Based on geological disaster survey data, evaluation indexes such as slope, slope aspect and geological disaster development density were selected, the information quantity model was used to evaluate the risk with slope element, on this basis, the vulnerability of disaster bearing body was superimposed for quantitative risk assessment, and delineated risk zones of geological disasters. Using ArcGIS, the risk zoning of geological disasters and current functional areas were superimposed, and Gaoxigou was reconstructed into four territorial space zones: medium risk in geological hazards–living area, low risk in geological hazards–ecological functional area, low risk in geological hazards–agricultural production area, and ravine region, and put forward the territorial space optimization strategy.
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表 1 信息量值对应危险性等级及灾点分布的对比表
Table 1. Comparison of information value corresponding to risk grade and disaster point distribution
危险性
等级信息
量值面积
（km2）面积所
占比例（%）崩塌
数（个）崩塌所
占比例（%）危险性中 2.401～6.015 0.850 20.89 20 76.9 危险性低 0～2.401 0.932 22.90 6 23.1 危险性极低 −2.171～0 2.133 52.40 0 0 沟谷区 0 0.155 3.81 0 0 总计 4.07 100 26 100 
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表 2 高西沟地质灾害风险评价结果表
Table 2. Risk assessment results of geological hazards in Gaoxigou
风险源
编号发生
概率P（L）到达
概率P（T:L）承灾体
时空概率P（T）财产易
损性V（prop）人员易
损性V（D）承灾体价值
E（万元）财产年损失
R（prop）（万元/a）单人年死亡
概率P（LoL）1号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 60 0.0019 1.25×10−5 2号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.3 30 0.0113 1.88×10−4 3号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.3 100 0.0031 1.88×10−5 4号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.3 20 0.0075 1.88×10−4 5号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.3 50 0.0188 1.88×10−4 6号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.7 0.3 15 0.0066 1.88×10−4 7号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 40 0.0013 1.25×10−5 8号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.7 0.3 60 0.0263 1.88×10−4 9号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.5 80 0.0300 3.13×10−4 10号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.3 90 0.0028 1.88×10−5 11号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.3 0.2 30 0.0006 1.25×10−5 12号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.5 80 0.0300 3.13×10−4 13号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.4 0.2 85 0.0021 1.25×10−5 14号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 90 0.0028 1.25×10−5 15号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.5 80 0.0300 3.13×10−4 16号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 50 0.0016 1.25×10−5 17号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 16 0.0005 1.25×10−5 18号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.3 18 0.0068 1.88×10−4 19号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.3 40 0.0013 1.88×10−5 20号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 30 0.0009 1.25×10−5 21号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 15 0.0005 1.25×10−5 22号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 38 0.0012 1.25×10−5 23号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.6 0.3 40 0.0150 1.88×10−4 24号 10−3 1.0 0.625 0.7 0.3 80 0.0350 1.88×10−4 25号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 15 0.0005 1.25×10−5 26号 10−4 1.0 0.625 0.5 0.2 85 0.0027 1.25×10−5
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