Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Geological Disasters in Yulin City Based on the Records from 1984 to 2022
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摘要:
地质灾害时空分布规律研究是制定地质灾害防治计划和落实防灾减灾措施的重要基础。笔者系统分析1984～2022年榆林市有记录的527组地质灾害数据，总结榆林市地质灾害的时空分布规律。空间上，榆林市地质灾害主要发生于清涧、子洲、米脂等县域，在地貌上以黄土丘陵沟壑区为主，黄河沿岸土石山区次之，风沙滩地区不发育。在时间上，年内地质灾害发生主要集中在7～10月汛期，月内集中于7月11～15日，冻融期均有分布且致死人数最多。灾害数量、致死人数越多，其重现期越长。子洲县年地质灾害致死概率最高（16.5%），其次为米脂县（9.8%）和府谷县（5.6%）。由此提出下一步工作建议：①加强汛期降雨量与地质灾害发生概率定量关系研究，完善地质灾害气象预警阈值。②加强冻融机理研究，建立冻融型地质灾害防御方案。③加强“风险点+危险区”的双控机制研究。
Abstract:The study of the spatial and temporal distribution of geological disasters is an important basis for formulating geological disaster prevention plans and implementing disaster prevention and mitigation measures. This paper systematically analyzes 527 sets of geological disaster data recorded in Yulin City from 1984 to 2022. The spatial and temporal distribution rules of geological disasters in Yulin City has been summarized. Spatially, the geological disasters in Yulin City mainly occur in Qingjian, Zizhou, Mizhi Counties, and are mainly distributed in the earth−rock mountainous areas along the Yellow River and the loess hilly and gully areas. In terms of time, the number of geological disasters takes 5 years as a cycle, the flood season is frequent, concentrated on July 11～15, the freeze−thaw period is evenly distributed and the number of deaths is the largest. The more the number of disasters and deaths, the longer the return period. Zizhou County had the highest annual probability of death from geological disasters, 16.5%, followed by Mizhi County, 9.8%, and Fugu County, 5.6%. Therefore, the following suggestions are put forward: ① Strengthen the quantitative relationship between rainfall in flood season and the probability of geological disasters, and improve the meteorological warning threshold of geological disasters. ② Strengthen the study of freeze−thaw mechanism and establish a freeze−thaw geological disaster prevention plan. ③ Strengthen the research on the dual control mechanism of "risk point + risk area".
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表 1 榆林市各区县滑坡崩塌数量表
Table 1. Number of landslide collapses in Yulin city
县区 类 型 榆阳 神木 府谷 定边 靖边 横山 绥德 米脂 佳县 吴堡 清涧 子州 崩塌 发生数（次） 6 11 43 26 6 8 38 29 8 7 110 34 致死灾害数（次） 1 0 3 4 2 4 5 10 2 1 2 11 死亡人数（人） 2 0 28 11 6 6 13 20 4 2 3 63 滑坡 发生数（次） 11 11 15 4 8 9 7 26 3 9 53 24 致死灾害数（次） 4 0 0 1 1 4 5 12 0 4 2 4 死亡人数（人） 26 0 0 2 1 10 16 31 0 10 13 7 
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表 2 年地质灾害发生频率 、年致死地质灾害发生频率、 年致死人数发生频率及其重现期表
Table 2. The frequency and return period of annual geological disasters, annual fatal geological disasters and annual fatalities
灾害发生
数（次）经验频率
（%）重现期
（a）致死灾害
数（次）致死灾害
所占比例（%）经验频率
（%）重现期
（a）致死人数
（人）经验频率
（%）重现期
（a）0 97.5 1 0 4.08 88.75 1 0 88.75 1 1 93.75 1 1 49.39 66.25 2 1 76.25 1 2 87.5 1 2 10.82 46.25 2 2 68.75 1 3 77.5 1 3 9.39 28.75 3 3 58.75 2 4 63.75 2 4 11.02 16.25 6 5 52.5 2 5 52.5 2 5 7.76 10 10 6 48.75 2 7 43.75 2 6 7.55 3.75 27 7 36.25 3 8 36.25 3 8 25 4 9 32.5 3 9 22.5 4 10 30 3 10 20 5 11 27.5 4 12 16.25 6 12 23.75 4 13 12.5 8 13 20 5 15 10 10 15 17.5 6 22 7.5 13 20 15 7 28 5 20 23 12.5 8 35 2.5 40 25 8.75 11 47 5 20 162 2.5 40
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表 3 各区县人员年地质灾害致死概率表
Table 3. The annual death probability of geological disasters in each county
参数 县 区 林阳 神木 府谷 定边 靖边 横山 绥德 米脂 佳县 吴堡 清涧 子洲 V 0.100 0.000 0.100 0.047 0.025 0.057 0.104 0.183 0.014 0.043 0.057 0.269 PL 0.385 0.231 0.564 0.282 0.231 0.308 0.385 0.538 0.154 0.359 0.231 0.615 PLOL（%） 3.860 0.000 5.661 1.314 0.579 1.765 3.998 9.843 0.221 1.544 1.323 16.543
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