Development Feature and Risk Assessment of Geological Hazards Caused by the Ms 6.2 Earthquake in Jishishan County, Linxia, Gansu Province
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摘要:
2023年12月18日23时59分，甘肃省临夏州积石山县发生Ms6.2级地震，诱发了大量崩滑地质灾害，严重威胁人民生命财产安全。基于震区现场实地调查成果，开展地震诱发加剧地质灾害的发育特征、危险性评价研究，提出防灾减灾措施建议。根据实地调查统计，此次地震后新增地质灾害隐患点64处，加剧的地质灾害隐患点有63处。新增和变形加剧的隐患点以崩塌为主，滑坡次之；规模等级以小型为主，中型次之。崩滑地质灾害主要集中在黄土丘陵区，以黄土陡坎地带切坡建房、切坡修路为主。利用GIS技术的加权信息量法评价积石山县域地质灾害易发性。结果显示，高易发区、中易发区、低易发区、非易发区占比分别为5.45%、9.83%、32.70%和52.02%，其中高易发区主要分布在积石山东部黄土丘陵区的山梁地带。基于区域地质灾害易发性评价，开展地震活动断裂、地震动分布以及不同降雨工况条件（10年、20年、50年、100年一遇）下积石山县域地质灾害危险性评价。结果显示：100年一遇极高危险区较10年一遇极高危险区的增幅最大为18.26%，说明未来区内遭遇极端降雨会显著提高区内地质灾害危险程度。研究认为，积石山地震地质灾害后效应将增强，未来崩塌、滑坡发生频次升高，地质灾害易在降水、冻融条件下形成，需针对性地采取防控措施，有效降低其威胁程度。
Abstract:On December 18, 2023 at 23:59, an Ms6.2 earthquake occurred in Jishishan County, Linxia Prefecture, Gansu Province, triggering a large number of landslides and geological disasters, seriously threatening the safety of people's lives and property. This article is based on the results of on-site investigations in earthquake prone areas, conducting research on the development characteristics and risk assessment of geological disasters induced by earthquakes, and proposing suggestions for disaster prevention and reduction measures. According to on-site investigations and statistics, there are 64 new geological hazard points added after this earthquake. There are 63 potential geological hazards that have intensified. The main hidden danger points of newly added and intensified deformation are landslides, followed by landslides; The scale level is mainly small, followed by medium. Landslide geological disasters are mainly concentrated in loess hilly areas, with the main focus on building houses and roads by cutting slopes in steep loess slopes. The weighted information method based on GIS technology was used to evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters in Jishishan County. The evaluation results showed that the proportions of high susceptibility areas, medium susceptibility areas, low susceptibility areas, and non susceptibility areas were 5.45%, 9.83%, 32.70%, and 52.02%, respectively. The high susceptibility areas were mainly distributed in the mountain ridge area of the loess hilly area in the eastern part of Jishi Mountain. On the basis of regional geological hazard susceptibility assessment, a geological hazard risk assessment of Jishishan County was conducted based on seismic activity faults, seismic motion distribution, and different rainfall conditions (10 year, 20 year, 50 year, 100 year return period). The evaluation results showed that the maximum increase in the 100 year return period extremely dangerous area compared to the 10 year return period extremely dangerous area was 18.26%, In the future, encountering extreme rainfall in the area will significantly increase the risk of geological disasters in the area. Research suggests that the post earthquake effects of geological disasters in Jishishan will be enhanced, and the frequency of landslides and collapses will increase in the future. Geological disasters are prone to form under precipitation and freeze-thaw conditions, and targeted prevention and control measures need to be taken to effectively reduce their threat level.
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Key words:
- earthquake /
- geological hazards /
- developmental feature /
- risk assessment /
- Jishishan in Gansu
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图 1 甘肃积石山6.2级地震烈度图（据中华人民共和国应急管理部，2023修）
Figure 1.
表 1 易发评价指标权重统计表
Table 1. Weight of susceptibility evaluation indicators
权重 坡高 坡向 坡度 工程地质岩组 灾点分布 地震烈度 矩阵法 0.2 0.08 0.19 0.22 0.2 0.11 专家打分法 0.23 0.09 0.18 0.22 0.2 0.08 综合 0.22 0.08 0.19 0.22 0.2 0.09 
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表 2 各因子图层分类情况及其对应的信息量值统计表
Table 2. Classification of each factor layer and its corresponding information value
评价指标图层 评价因素子类 坡度 分类范围（°） ＜5 5～15 15～25 25～35 35～45 45～55 ＞55 分类值 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 信息量 0.27 0.13 −0.533 −0.87 −0.25 −0.24 −0.68 坡高 分类范围（°） 0～20 20～40 40～60 ＞60 分类值 1 2 3 4 信息量 0.22 −0.07 −1.14 −1.83 坡向 分类范围（°） 0～90 90～180 180～270 270～360 分类值 1 2 3 4 信息量 −1.57 −0.18 0.23 1.10 工程地质岩组 分类范围（°） 土体类 碎屑岩类 岩浆岩类 变质岩类 碳酸盐岩类 混合岩类 分类值 1 2 3 4 5 6 信息量 0.67 −0.27 −1.37 −2.30 −1.390 0.340 灾点分布 分类范围（m） 0～200 200～500 500～1000 >1000 分类值 1 2 3 4 信息量 −10.132 −10.693 −11.180 −11.00 地震烈度 分类范围（°） 8 7 6 分类值 1 2 3 信息量 1.690 1.350 1.16
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表 3 积石山地质灾害易发性分区说明表
Table 3. Explanation table for the susceptibility zoning of geological hazards in Jishi Mountain
易发区划 面积
（km2）百分比
（%）分区说明 高易发区 49.54 5.45 主要分布在积石山东部黄土丘陵区的山梁地带，影响最为严重的乡镇分别为郭干乡、中咀岭乡、寨子沟乡、小关乡、徐扈家乡、刘集乡、胡林家乡 中易发区 89.34 9.83 主要分布在积石山东部黄土丘陵区的山梁地带，影响积石山县域东部大部分乡镇，主要影响大河家镇、石塬镇、柳沟乡、关家川、安吉镇、银川镇、铺川乡、癿藏乡、居集镇、郭干乡、中咀岭乡、寨子沟乡、小关乡、徐扈家乡、刘集乡、胡林家乡 低易发区 297.24 32.70 主要分布在积石山东部侵蚀剥蚀低山丘陵、侵蚀堆积河谷平原区，地质灾害发育较少 非易发区 472.88 52.02 主要分布在积石山以西高、中侵蚀山地区，地质灾害不发育
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表 4 积石山地质灾害危险性分区面积及占比统计表
Table 4. Statistical table of the area and proportion of geological hazard zoning in Jishi Mountain
分区 10年一遇降雨 20年一遇降雨 50年一遇降雨 百年一遇降雨 面积
（km2）占比
（%）面积
（km2）占比
（%）面积
（km2）占比
（%）面积
（km2）占比
（%）极高危险区 42.57 4.68 56.73 6.24 109.45 12.04 208.56 22.94 高危险区 84.08 9.25 98.24 10.80 159.64 17.56 183.56 20.19 中危险区 283.44 31.18 306.89 33.76 349.53 38.45 389.31 42.83 低危险区 498.89 54.89 447.14 49.20 290.38 31.95 127.57 14.04
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