SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE AFTER RESERVOIR IMPOUNDMENT BASED ON ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS
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摘要:
水库库区地形地质和水位地质条件复杂, 蓄水后受降雨和库水位变动影响容易产生滑坡、崩塌等次生地质灾害, 严重威胁水库安全运行和附近居民安全. 本文依托层次分析法, 以某蓄水水库为研究对象, 在充分收集其地形地质和水文条件资料的基础上, 选取地形地貌、地层岩性、坡度、坡向、地灾点密度、地灾点面积、降雨、库水变动幅度和地震强度等9个致滑因子, 构建评价矩阵和滑坡危险性计算评价方法. 依据评价成果划分4个滑坡危险性等级, 借助MapGIS软件生成库区潜在滑坡危险性分区图. 该分区图与遥感解译的库区滑坡体分布点高度吻合, 验证了评价模型的合理性.
Abstract:Reservoir areas are prone to secondary geological disasters such as landslides and collapses due to complex geological conditions involving topography and water level, which seriously threatens the safety of reservoirs and nearby residents. Taking a certain impoundment reservoir as the research object, 9 sliding factors including landform, stratum lithology, slope gradient, aspect, density and area of geohazard sites, precipitation, water storage variation and earthquake intensity are selected to construct the evaluation matrix and landslide risk calculation method on the basis of adequate data collection of topographic and hydrological conditions through analytic hierarchy process(AHP). Four landslide risk grades are divided according to the evaluation results, which then generate the potential landslide risk zoning map of the reservoir area by MapGIS. The zonation coincides highly with the distribution of landslide bodies interpreted by remote sensing, which proves that the evaluation model is effective.
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Key words:
- analytic hierarchy process /
- reservoir /
- impoundment /
- landslide /
- geological hazard
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表 1 致滑因子及其量化指标综合分类表
Table 1. Comprehensive classification of landslide factors and their quantitative indexes
指标大类 指标小类 量化等级与划分依据 1 2 3 4 灾害
程度
B1地灾点个数 0~3 3~6 6~9 大于9 地灾点面积 0~1 1~3 3~6 大于6 诱发
因素
B2降雨强度/
（mm/d）0~500 500~1000 1000~1500 大于1500 库水变动幅度 0~20 20~30 30~60 大于60 地形
地质
B3地震烈度 Ⅴ Ⅵ Ⅶ Ⅷ及以上 地层岩性 坚硬岩 中硬岩 较软岩 软岩及覆盖层 分布高程/m 0~1000 1000~1500 1500~2000 大于2000 地形坡度/（°） 0~15 15~30 30~45 大于45 坡面倾向/（°） 0~90 90~180 180~270 270~360 
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表 2 运筹标度指标
Table 2. Scale indexes of logistics operation research
标度值i 代表意义 1 两个子因子C1与Ci之间存在同等影响 3 两个子因子C1与Ci之间一方稍强 5 两个子因子C1与Ci之间存在明显一方更强 7 两个子因子C1与Ci之间，Cj比C1影响非常强 9 两个子因子C1与Ci之间，Cj比C1绝对强 2/4/6/8 两个子因子C1与Ci之间影响程度无法完全比较 1/i 两者之间存在反向关系
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表 3 随机一致性指标R取值
Table 3. Random consistency index R value
阶数 1 2 3 4 5 6 R值 0.02 0.07 0.55 0.82 1.12 1.30
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表 4 水库滑坡区至滑因子权重评估成果
Table 4. Weight evaluation results of landslide factors in reservoir landslide area
C层编号 B1层权重 B2层权重 B3层权重 C层权重 C1 0.45 0 0 0.27 C2 0.45 0 0 0.08 C3 0 0 0 0.21 C4 0 0.44 0 0.15 C5 0 0.23 0 0.15 C6 0 0.23 0.11 0.18 C7 0 0.35 0.13 0.08 C8 0.5 0.11 0.21 0.33 C9 0.5 0 0.5 0.05
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