Research on evaluation and early warning of groundwater resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province
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摘要:
河北省由于地下水持续超采引发一系列生态环境问题，其根源在于人类活动强度超出了地下水资源承载能力，并缺乏及时有效的预警。为了构建更符合河北省实际的地下水资源承载能力评价体系，解决以往预警方法需要设置固定的水位、水量预警区间值，水位的区域差异导致的宏观性评价困难、工作量巨大且无法动态修正的问题，从地下水的资源属性和社会属性出发，采用指标体系综合分析评判法，建立承载本底、承载状态2个层面的承载能力评价体系；采用地下水开发利用程度为主，水位变化幅度加以修正的“双控联动”预警方法，实现两指标的动态联动且无需设置固定的水位、水量区间。研究表明河北省地下水资源承载本底整体较好，但由于开发利用程度高，承载状态多处于超载状态，承载能力太行山中南部高于北部及燕山山区、坝上地区，山前冲洪积平原优于中部湖积平原和滨海平原；受咸水分布、工农业生产取水量大等因素影响，地下水红色及橙色预警区域主要分布于河北平原中部冲湖积平原的沧州、衡水地区、太行山山前平原邯邢交界区域及城市市区周边。评价及预警结果与河北省实际情况吻合。该评价方法具有区域适用性强、可操作性好、数据易获取等优点。
Abstract:A series of ecological and environmental problems occur in Hebei Province due to the continuous over-exploitation of groundwater. The reasons for these are that human activity intensity is beyond the groundwater resources carrying capacity and there is lack of timely and effective early warning method. The aims of this study is to build the groundwater resources carrying capacity evaluation system conforming to the reality of Hebei Province, improve previous warning methods that need to set the fixed warning interval value of groundwater levels and water volume and address some problems caused by the regional differences of groundwater level, such as macroscopic evaluation difficulty, huge workload and being unable to correct dynamically. Based on resource attributes and social attributes of the groundwater resources, this paper uses the comprehensive analysis and judgement method of index system and builds the carrying capacity evaluation system on two levels: carrying background and carrying status. The “dual-control linkage” warning system is used, which mainly focuses on the degree of groundwater development and utilization and modifies the extent of groundwater level changes, to achieve dynamical linkage of the two indexes without setting the fixed interval value of groundwater level and water volume. The research results show that the overall carrying background of groundwater resources in Hebei Province is good. Because the degree of groundwater development and utilization is high, the carrying status of groundwater is mostly in the over-load state.The results show that the bearing capacity of the central and southern parts of the Taihang Mountains is higher than that of the northern part, Yanshan mountain area and the Bashang region, and the bearing capacity of the piedmont alluvial plain is better than those of the central lacustrine plain and coastal plain. Influenced by the salt water distribution, the huge water consumption in industrial and agricultural production and other factors, red and orange warning areas of groundwater are mainly distributed in the Cangzhou and Hengshui areas of the central alluvial lake plain of the Hebei plain, Hanxing junction area of the Taihang piedmont plain and urban peripheries. Evaluation and warning results conform to the reality of Hebei Province and the system has the advantages of strong regional applicability, good operability and easy access to data.
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表 1 河北省地下水资源承载能力评价指标体系
Table 1. Evaluation index system of groundwater resources carrying capacity of Hebei Province
指标类型 本底评价 状态评价 基础指标 地下水可开采资源模数 地下水开发利用程度 修正指标 可饮用地下水资源量占比 水位相对下降区占比 可灌溉地下水资源量占比 地下水用水量占比 
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表 2 地下水可开采资源模数本底分级标准
Table 2. Standard for the module background classification of exploitable groundwater resources
等级 地下水可开采资源模数/（104 m3·km−2·a−1） 高 ≥10 较高 [7.5, 10) 中 [3.5, 7.5) 较低 [2, 3.5) 低 <2
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表 3 地下水承载本底修正指标阈值
Table 3. Threshold for groundwater carrying background correction index
修正指标 不降级 降一级 降二级 可饮用的地下水资源量占比/% (70, 100] （30~70] [0, 30] 可灌溉的地下水资源量占比/% (60, 100] （25~60] [0, 25]
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表 4 地下水承载状态修正指标阈值
Table 4. Groundwater carrying state correction index threshold
修正指标 不降级 降一级 地下水水位下降区面积占比/% [0, 30] (30, 100] 地下水用水量占比/% [0, 50] (50, 100]
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表 5 地下水资源承载能力分级表
Table 5. Scale for groundwater resources carrying capacity
承载能力等级 承载本底等级 高 较高 中 较低 低 承载状态等级 盈余 强 强 较强 中 较弱 均衡 强 较强 中 较弱 弱 超载 较强 中 较弱 弱 弱
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表 6 地下水预警等级判别矩阵
Table 6. Discriminant matrix of groundwater warning grade
预警级别 承载状态级别 轻度超载 中度超载 重度超载 发展趋势类型 变优 蓝色 黄色 橙色 稳定 黄色 橙色 红色 变劣 橙色 红色 红色
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