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摘要:
台风暴雨是我国东南丘陵山地滑坡的主要诱发因素，揭示台风路径与滑坡发生的相关关系对东南丘陵山地台风暴雨型土质滑坡监测预警具有重要的理论及实际意义。本文基于2015—2019年直接过境福建省或间接对福建省造成影响的台风数据以及与这些台风事件发生期间的降雨量数据和台风暴雨滑坡数据，运用ArcGIS软件中的克里金插值法将台风路径、降雨量数据及台风暴雨滑坡数据进行耦合。再运用Logistic回归方法，通过SPSS软件得到泉州市基于台风路径追踪的滑坡发生概率模型。并运用克里金插值法和Logistic回归方法，以台风杜鹃期间的滑坡为实例对所得模型进行验证，其对实际雨量站测得降雨数据引发滑坡与否的判对概率为77%，对实际发生滑坡的判对概率为100%，依据实际降雨量计算数据，其误报率为21%，但实际滑坡发生的误报率为0，符合安全性。预报效果较为满意，因此模型可作为在台风经过泉州市时的台风暴雨型滑坡发生概率的预测。
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关键词:
- 台风路径 /
- 克里金插值法 /
- Logistic回归 /
- 概率模型
Abstract:Typhoon rainstorm is the main inducing factor of landslides in southeast hills and mountains in our country. Revealing the correlation between typhoon path and landslides has important theoretical and practical significance for monitoring and early warning of typhoon-rainstorm soil landslides in southeast hills and mountains. In this paper, based on the typhoon data directly passing through Fujian Province or indirectly affecting Fujian Province from 2015 to 2019, as well as the rainfall data and typhoon-rainstorm landslide data during these typhoon events, the Kriging interpolation method in ArcGIS software is used to couple the typhoon path, rainfall data and typhoon-rainstorm landslide data. Through the logistic regression method in SPSS software, the landslide probability model based on typhoon track in Quanzhou City is obtained. Using Kriging interpolation method and logistic regression method, we take the landslide occurred during typhoon Dujuan as an example to verify the model. The correct probability of landslide caused by rainfall data measured by actual rainfall station is 77%, and the correct probability of actual landslide is 100% with a satisfactory prediction effect. Based on the actual rainfall calculation data, the false alarm rate is 21%, but the actual landslide false alarm rate is 0, which is in line with the safety. Therefore, the model can be used to predict the occurrence probability of typhoon-rainstorm landslides under the influence of typhoon passing through Quanzhou City.
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Key words:
- typhoon path /
- Kriging interpolation /
- logistic regression method /
- probability model
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表 1 台风数据统计表（资料来源于福建省地质灾害防治信息网）
Table 1. Statistical Table of typhoon data (Data from Fujian Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Information Network)
台风名称 中心气压
/hPa风速/（m·s−1） 等级 期间泉州市最大小时
降雨量/mm201508苏迪罗 970 38 13 9 20160709尼伯特 990 25 10 28 20160914莫兰蒂 935 50 15 43 20160929鲶鱼 975 33 12 18 20170730海棠 990 18 8 17 20170731纳沙 975 33 12 21 20180711玛莉亚 960 42 14 8 20190826白鹿 985 25 10 4 201509029杜鹃 971 35 12 45 
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表 2 泉州市滑坡灾害部分数据（资料来源于福建省地质灾害防治信息网）
Table 2. Partial data of landslide disaster in Quanzhou City (Data from Fujian Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Information Network)
序号 滑坡发生地点 发生年月 滑坡个数 滑坡概率 1 泉州市德化县盖德乡 2018年8月 2 P=1 2 泉州市安溪县湖上乡 2015年9月 17 P=1 3 泉州市安溪县大坪乡 2016年7月 6 P=1 4 泉州市德化县水口镇 2016年7月 2 P=1 5 泉州市安溪县参内乡 2016年9月 24 P=1 6 泉州市德化县雷锋镇 2016年9月 33 P=1 7 泉州市洛江区河市镇 2016年9月 13 P=1 8 泉州市南安市金淘镇 2016年9月 47 P=1 9 泉州市安溪县桃州乡 2017年8月 1 P=1 10 泉州市洛江区罗溪镇 2017年8月 1 P=1
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表 3 泉州地区部分台风暴雨诱发滑坡数据（资料来源于福建省地质灾害防治信息网）
Table 3. Data of typhoon-induced landslides in Quanzhou district (data from the Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Information Network of Fujian Province)
滑坡发生位置 滑坡发生日期 D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 滑坡发生概率 德化县盖德乡仙岭村 2015年8月9日 80 167 19.5 0 7.5 27.5 1 德化县南埕镇塔兜村 2015年8月9日 100 122.5 13 0 3 0 1 安溪县湖上乡飞新村 2015年9月29日 106.5 57.5 0.5 1 4 30 1 安溪县虎丘镇福井村 2015年9月29日 126.5 55 0.5 1 22 3 1 德化县盖德乡仙岭村 2019年8月19日 35 12 0 10 5 0 0 德化县南埕镇塔兜村 2019年8月19日 22 0 12.5 0 0 0 0 安溪县湖上乡飞新村 2019年8月19日 10.5 5 1 0 0 1 0 安溪县虎丘镇福井村 2019年8月19日 16 0 0 1 0 0 0
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表 4 逻辑回归方程相关统计量（资料来源于福建省地质灾害防治信息网）
Table 4. Correlation statistics of logistic regression equation (data from the Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Information Network of Fujian Province)
降雨变量 回归系数 标准误差 Wald检验值 自由度 显著性水平 期望值 D0 0.142 0.025 32.394 1 0.000 1.152 D1 0.032 0.032 11.006 1 0.316 1.033 D2 0.222 0.081 7.591 1 0.006 1.249 D3 −0.373
50.413 0.816 1 0.366 0.689 D4 −0.71 0.078 0.840 1 0.359 0.931 D5 0.113 0.067 2.876 1 0.090 1.119 常量 −12.082 2.261 28.558 1 0.000 0.000
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表 5 筛除不相关数据后的逻辑回归方程相关统计量（资料来源于福建省地质灾害防治信息网）
Table 5. Logistic regression equation correlation statistics after filtering out irrelevant data (data from the Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Information Network of Fujian Province)
降雨变量 回归系数 标准误差 Wald检验值 自由度 显著性水平 期望值 D0 0.217 0.058 13.832 1 0.000 1.242 D1 0.039 0.027 3.137 1 0.144 1.040 D2 0.149 0.026 33.493 1 0.000 1.161 常量 −12.856 2.292 31.451 1 0.000 0.000
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表 6 模型预测分类表（资料来源于福建省地质灾害防治信息网）
Table 6. Model prediction classification table (data from the Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Information Network of Fujian Province)
实际滑坡数据 预测值 滑坡是否发生 百分比矫正/% 0 1 滑坡是否发生 0 124 23 84.4 1 5 142 96.6 总百分比 90.5
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表 7 台风杜鹃滑坡预测分类表（资料来源于福建省地质灾害防治信息网）
Table 7. Typhoon Dujuan landslide forecast classification table (data from the Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Information Network of Fujian Province)
总数 P≤0.8 P>0.8 计算准确率/% 依据实际雨量计算 709 544 165 77 实际发生滑坡数量 17 0 17 100 预测发生滑坡数 165 0 165 − 预测滑坡涉及乡镇 25 0 25 68
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