Hazard assessment of shallow loess landslides induced by rainfall：A case study of Liulin County of Shanxi Province
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摘要:
黄土高原是我国地质灾害最为发育的地区之一，其中降雨诱发的浅层黄土滑坡又最为典型。以典型黄土地貌区-柳林县为例，应用SINMAP模型，探讨模型在黄土地区的适用性，分析了随着研究区内降雨量的增加，滑坡变形失稳区域的面积变化、分布位置和扩展趋势。研究表明，随着降雨量的增加，滑坡所处位置逐渐由稳定状态向失稳状态发展，位于失稳分区的滑坡数量逐渐增加，说明降雨对该研究区的斜坡稳定性影响较为明显。通过将模拟结果与实际发生的由降雨触发的滑坡灾害进行对比分析，可以得出SINMAP模型在黄土地区，对区域性降雨诱发浅层黄土滑坡稳定性的模拟预测有效，可以用于黄土地区浅层滑坡的稳定性评价研究。
Abstract:Loess Plateau is one of the most developed areas of geological disasters in China, and the shallow loess landslide induced by rainfall is the most typical. Taking Liulin County, a typical loess landform area, as an example. With the increase of rainfall in the study area, the area change, distribution location and expansion trend of the landslide deformation instability area are analyzed. The research shows that with the increase of rainfall, the location of landslides gradually develops from a stable state to an unstable state, and the number of landslides in the unstable zone gradually increases, indicating that rainfall has a significant impact on the slope stability of the study area. By comparing the simulation results with the actual rainfall-triggered landslide disasters. It can be concluded that the SINMAP model is effective in simulating and predicting the regional stability of shallow loess landslide induced by rainfall in the loess region, as well as can be used in the stability assessment of shallow landslide in the loess region.
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Key words:
- rainfall /
- shallow loess landslides /
- stability /
- SINMAP model
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表 1 模型选取的参数值
Table 1. Parameter values selected by the model
重力加速度/(m·s−2) 湿度/% 内聚力/kPa 内摩擦角/（°） 土体密度/(kg·m−3) 土体的导水系数/(m2·d−1) 下限 上限 下限 上限 9.81 10 3 15 15 24 1540 135 
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表 2 稳定性分类定义
Table 2. Stability classification definition
序号 条件 类 预测状态 未建模因素的可能影响 1 SI>1.5 1 极稳定 不稳定需要巨大的不稳定因素 2 1.5≥SI>1.25 2 稳定 不稳定需要适度的不稳定因素 3 1.25≥SI>1.0 3 基本稳定 较小的不稳定因素可能导致不稳定 4 1.0≥SI>0.5 4 潜在不稳定 不稳定不需要不稳定因素 5 0.5≥ SI>0 5 不稳定 稳定因素可能是稳定的原因 6 SI=0 6 极不稳定 稳定需要稳定因素
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