Comparison of landslide susceptibility assessment based on multiple hybrid models at county level: A case study for Puge County, Sichuan Province
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摘要:
为有效预测县域滑坡发生的空间概率，探索不同统计学耦合模型滑坡易发性定量评价结果的合理性和精度，以四川省普格县为研究对象。选取坡度、坡向、高程、工程地质岩组、断层和斜坡结构等6项孕灾因子作为评价指标体系，基于信息量模型（I）、确定性系数模型（CF）、证据权模型（WF）、频率比模型（FR）分别与逻辑回归模型（LR）耦合开展滑坡易发性评价。结果表明：各耦合模型评价结果和易发程度区划均是合理的，极高易发区主要分布于则木河、黑水河河谷两侧斜坡带，面积介于129.04～183.43 km2（占比6.77%～9.62%），各模型评价精度依次为WF-LR模型（AUC=0.869）>I-LR模型（AUC=0.868）>CF-LR模型（AUC=0.866）>NFR-LR模型（AUC=0.858）。研究成果可为川西南山区县域滑坡易发性定量评估提供重要参考。
Abstract:In order to effectively predict the spatial probability of landslide occurrence at county scale, the quantitative evaluation and comparative study of landslide susceptibility were carried out based on different statistical coupling models in Puge County, Southwest Sichuan. Six evaluation factors including slope, slope direction, elevation, engineering geological rock group, distance from fault and slope structure are selected to construct the evaluation index system. Information model (I), certainty factor model (CF), weight of evidence model (WF) and frequency ratio model (FR) are coupled with logistic regression model (LR) respectively to conduct landslide susceptibility evaluation. The results show that the evaluation results of each coupled model and the zoning of susceptibility are reasonable. The extremely high susceptibility areas with 129.04 −183.43 km2 (accounting for 6.77% −9.62%) are mainly distributed in the slope zones on both sides of Zemu River and Heishui River Valley. The evaluation accuracy decreases from WF-LR model (AUC=0.869), I-LR model (AUC=0.868), CF-LR model (AUC=0.866), to NFR-LR model (AUC=0.858). The research results can provide an important reference for the quantitative evaluation of county landslide susceptibility in mountainous areas of Southwest Sichuan.
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表 1 评价因子分级及I值、CF值、WF值和NFR值
Table 1. Calculation results of I, CF, WF and NFR values for classification level of each evaluation factor
评价因子 分级 分级面积/km2 滑坡点/个 信息量值(I) 确定性系数值(CF) 证据权值(WF) 归一化评率比值(NFR) 坡度/（°） 0～10 190.90 17 −0.2634 −0.2316 −0.2888 0.1837 10～20 497.15 78 0.3889 0.3222 0.5724 0.3527 20～30 620.30 77 0.2321 0.2071 0.3667 0.3015 30～40 438.61 20 −0.6898 −0.4983 −0.8286 0.1199 40～50 138.49 3 −1.7342 −0.8235 −1.7967 0.0422 >50 21.54 0 −1.7342 −1.0000 −1.6118 0.0000 坡向 北 237.61 17 −0.7700 −0.5370 −0.8436 0.0582 北东 229.75 17 −0.2255 −0.2019 −0.2528 0.1003 东 264.22 29 −0.0776 −0.0747 −0.0895 0.1163 东南 223.00 23 0.0920 0.0879 0.1048 0.1378 南 213.81 23 0.0828 0.0795 0.0938 0.1365 西南 228.02 22 0.1185 0.1118 0.1358 0.1415 西 269.04 42 0.4051 0.3331 0.4907 0.1885 北西 241.54 22 −0.0392 −0.0384 −0.0447 0.1209 高程/m 1080～1250 18.04 8 1.5566 0.7892 1.5932 0.2481 1250～1500 73.97 60 2.0284 0.8685 2.3385 0.3977 1500～1750 127.88 39 1.0536 0.6513 1.1978 0.1500 1750～2000 181.76 38 0.7973 0.5495 0.9348 0.1161 2 000～2250 260.21 31 0.2378 0.2116 0.2812 0.0664 2250～2500 277.74 10 −1.0438 −0.6479 −1.1486 0.0184 >2500 967.41 9 −2.7618 −0.9368 −3.4370 0.0033 工程地质岩组 软硬相间砂泥岩岩组 1012.50 137 0.2928 0.2538 0.7790 0.2852 坚硬玄武岩岩组 244.86 20 −0.2247 −0.2012 −0.2538 0.1700 坚硬层状灰岩岩组岩、白云质灰岩岩组 195.97 8 −0.6951 −0.5010 −0.7509 0.1062 坚硬−半坚硬砂岩组 324.87 14 −1.2006 −0.6990 −1.3347 0.0641 松软岩组 90.32 16 0.5650 0.4316 0.6035 0.3745 软硬相间凝灰岩 38.21 0 −1.2006 −1.0000 −0.9848 0.0000 半胶结岩组 0.27 0 −1.2006 −1.0000 −0.9848 0.0000 距断层距离/km 0～0.5 577.04 108 0.5763 0.4381 0.9892 0.4092 0.5～1 372.13 44 0.1105 0.1047 0.1393 0.2568 1～1.5 272.36 20 −0.2133 −0.1921 −0.2448 0.1858 1.5～3 476.60 19 −0.8907 −0.5896 −1.0700 0.0944 >3 208.88 4 −1.4520 −0.7659 −1.5421 0.0538 斜坡结构 顺向坡 284.78 49 0.4893 0.3870 0.6068 0.2398 斜向坡 513.76 46 −0.1274 −0.1196 −0.1706 0.1294 横向坡 521.17 43 −0.1973 −0.1791 −0.2624 0.1207 逆向坡 252.00 22 −0.1356 −0.1268 −0.1547 0.1284 块状结构斜坡 240.57 16 −0.4146 −0.3394 −0.4625 0.0971 松散土质斜坡 94.72 19 0.6605 0.4834 0.7107 0.2846 
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表 2 普格县滑坡易发性不同模型评价结果对比(训练集)
Table 2. Comparison of landslide susceptibility evaluation results of different models
评价模型 易发性等级 面积/km2 面积占比/% 训练集滑坡点（156个） 滑坡数量/个 占比/% 点密度/个/km2 I-LR 极高易发 169.89 8.91 80 51.28 0.47 高易发 303.28 15.90 50 32.05 0.16 中易发 269.10 14.11 20 12.82 0.07 低易发 1164.73 61.08 6 3.85 0.01 CF-LR 极高易发 183.43 9.62 80 51.28 0.44 高易发 284.62 14.92 47 30.13 0.17 中易发 233.42 12.24 21 13.46 0.09 低易发 1205.53 63.22 8 5.13 0.01 WF-LR 极高易发 168.77 8.85 78 50.00 0.46 高易发 302.78 15.88 51 32.69 0.17 中易发 278.71 14.62 21 13.46 0.08 低易发 1156.74 60.66 6 3.85 0.01 NFR-LR 极高易发 129.04 6.77 68 43.59 0.53 高易发 248.98 13.06 50 32.05 0.20 中易发 519.76 27.26 31 19.87 0.06 低易发 1009.23 52.92 7 4.49 0.01
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表 3 普格县滑坡易发性评价模型结果对比（测试样本）
Table 3. Comparison of landslide susceptibility evaluation results of different models
评价模型 易发性等级 面积/km 面积占比Sai/% 测试样本滑坡点（39个） Rei=Gei/Sai 滑坡数量/个 占比Gei/% I-LR 极高易发 169.89 8.91 19 48.72 5.47 高易发 303.28 15.90 12 30.77 1.93 中易发 269.10 14.11 3 7.69 0.55 低易发 1164.73 61.08 5 12.82 0.21 CF-LR 极高易发 183.43 9.62 19 48.72 5.06 高易发 284.62 14.92 13 33.33 2.23 中易发 233.42 12.24 2 5.13 0.42 低易发 1205.53 63.22 5 12.82 0.20 WF-LR 极高易发 168.77 8.85 20 51.28 5.79 高易发 302.78 15.88 12 30.77 1.94 中易发 278.71 14.62 2 5.13 0.35 低易发 1156.74 60.66 5 12.82 0.21 NFR-LR 极高易发 129.04 6.77 19 48.72 7.20 高易发 248.98 13.06 10 25.64 1.96 中易发 519.76 27.26 5 12.82 0.47 低易发 1009.23 52.92 5 12.82 0.24
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