Susceptibility assessment of debris flows based on information model in Dongchuan, Yunnan Province
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摘要:
以东川泥石流为研究对象，选取高程、坡度、坡向、起伏度、曲率、工程岩组、距断层距离、距水系距离、土地利用类型9个影响因子，以研究区144条泥石流为样本数据，建立了东川泥石流易发性评价体系。基于GIS平台，采用信息量模型计算各个评价指标状态分级的信息量值，以小流域为评价单元使用自然间断法将研究区泥石流易发程度分为极高、高、中和低4个易发区等级。结果表明：研究区极高易发区和高易发区发生泥石流灾害数量占比94.44%，AUC值为0.876，表明选取评价指标合理，信息量模型适用于东川泥石流易发性评价研究。
Abstract:In this paper, taking debris flow in Dongchuan as the research object, nine influence factors are chosen as the selected indices, including the elevation, slope, aspect, relief, curvature, engineering rock group, distance to faults, distance to faults rivers, and land use types, sample data from 144 debris flows in the study area are used to establish the Dongchuan debris flow susceptibility assessment system. Based on the information model and GIS platform, the information vaule of each factor classification is calculated, and the natural discontinuity method is used to divide the debris flow susceptibility into 4 levels: extremely high-prone areas, high-prone areas, medium-prone areas, and low-prone areas in the study area. The results show that the number of debris flow disasters in the extremely high and high-risk areas in the study area accounted for 94.44%, and the AUC value was 0.876, indicating that the selection of evaluation indicators was reasonable, and the information model was suitable for the evaluation of debris flow susceptibility in Dongchuan.
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Key words:
- debris flow /
- susceptibility assessment /
- information model /
- Dongchuan
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表 1 数据来源及类型
Table 1. Data source and types
基础数据 评价因子 数据来源及制作 数据格式 DEM 高程 ASF
（阿拉斯加
卫星设备）12.5 m×12.5 m
栅格数据坡度 坡向 起伏度 曲率 水系 距水系距离 DEM提取
Open Street Map矢量数据 地质数据 工程岩组分类 全国地质资料馆 矢量数据 距断层距离 土地类型 土地利用类型 ESA WorldCover 10 m栅格数据 灾害点 泥石流数量 地质灾害详查、排查等 矢量数据 
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表 2 各因素状态信息量表
Table 2. Weighted information values of each factor
指标因子 分级 泥石流点比例 信息量值 指标因子 分级 泥石流点比例 信息量值 高程/m 660～1500 0.2033 1.238744 曲率 −38～−1 0.2139 −0.131543 1500～2000 0.2598 −0.577567 −1～0 0.3114 0.430833 2000～2500 0.2209 −1.380367 0～2 0.3838 −0.205470 2500～3000 0.1594 −0.831065 >2 0.0909 −1.473365 >3000 0.1566 −1.729497 工程岩组 软岩组 0.0277 1.255712 坡度/（°） 0～10 0.1137 1.315538 较软岩组 0.5647 0.067643 10～20 0.2133 0.545702 较坚硬岩组 0.0693 −0.220774 20～30 0.2821 −0.871237 坚硬岩组 0.3383 −0.330859 30～40 0.2553 −1.206583 距水系距离/m 0 0.0037 1.322303 >40 0.1356 −2.278888 200 0.5022 0.624230 坡向 平坦（−1） 0.0011 0.000000 400 0.2786 −1.899977 北（0～22.5） 0.0638 0.084068 >400 0.2155 −3.435165 北东（22.5～67.5） 0.1268 0.353573 距断层距离/m <1000 0.6126 0.183653 东（67.5～112.5） 0.136 0.392672 1000～2000 0.2277 −0.445741 南东（112.5～157.5） 0.1266 −0.337806 2000～3000 0.0933 0.041246 南（157.5～202.5） 0.1072 −0.791193 >3000 0.0664 −1.158486 南西（202.5~247.5） 0.1119 −0.214621 土地利用类型 林地 0.2839 0.184122 西（247.5～292.5） 0.1379 0.269687 灌木 0.0024 −1.048475 北西（292.5～337.5） 0.1269 −0.266767 草地 0.4877 0.955946 北（337.5～360） 0.0618 −0.394293 耕地 0.1166 −0.437008 起伏度/（°） 0～20 0.2639 1.006637 建筑用地 0.0230 −1.937148 20～40 0.4084 −0.577548 裸地/稀疏植被区 0.0822 −0.994439 40～60 0.2465 −1.960151 开阔水域 0.0042 −0.514259 60～441 0.0812 −1.766161
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