Assessment of rockfall susceptibility along the expressway based on the CF-AHP coupling model: A case study of the Tucheng-Wanglong section of the Rongzun expressway
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摘要:
蓉遵高速公路（土城—旺隆段）沿线崩塌频繁发生，威胁公路安全甚至人类的生命财产安全。文章通过实地调查蓉遵高速公路（土城-旺隆段）崩塌地质灾害的影响因素，构建了9个影响因子，分别是地形起伏度、高程、归一化植被指数、坡向、地层岩性、距道路距离、距河流距离、坡度及降雨量。采用确定性系数模型（certain factors，CF）、层次分析法（analytic hierarchy process，AHP）及耦合模型（CF-AHP）对研究区进行崩塌地质灾害易发性评价，并分别采用崩塌地质灾害点频率统计和成功率曲线对3种模型的评价精度进行检验。结果表明，CF、AHP和CF-AHP的AUC预测精度分别为0.848，0.835，0.866，且3种评价模型得到的崩塌地质灾害的高、中易发区频率比值占总频率比值均超过70%。 3种模型精确度由大到小分别为CF-AHP、CF、AHP模型，说明CF-AHP模型的滑坡预测优于单一的CF、AHP模型，能精确地评价蓉遵高速公路（土城-旺隆段）崩塌地质灾害易发性，为公路沿线区域崩塌灾害的防灾减灾提供决策依据。
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关键词:
- 崩塌地质灾害 /
- 高速公路 /
- 易发性评价 /
- CF-AHP耦合模型
Abstract:Frequent geological hazards have occurred along the Rongzun Expressway (Tucheng - Wanglong section, posing a threat to the safety of the highway and even human life and property. This study investigated the causes of rockfall along the expressway and identified nine influencing factors, including terrain fluctuation, elevation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), slope direction, lithology, distance from the road, distance from the river, slope, and rainfall. The certainty factor model (CF), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and coupling model (CF-AHP) were used to evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazard in the study area, and the accuracy of the three models was tested using the distribution of rockfalls at various levels and the success rate curve. The results indicated that the AUC evaluation accuracy of CF, AHP and CF-AHP was 0.848, 0.835 and 0.866, respectively. The frequency ratios of high and moderate prone areas of geohazards obtained by the three evaluation models accounted for more than 70% of the total frequency ratios. The accuracy of the three models in descending order is CF-AHP, CF, AHP models, respectively. This indicates that the CF-AHP model is better than the single CF and AHP models in geohazard prediction and can accurately evaluate the geohazard susceptibility of expressway. It provides a decision-making basis for disaster prevention and mitigation of regional rockfall disaster along the highway.
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Key words:
- rockfall geological hazard /
- expressway /
- susceptibility evaluation /
- the CF-AHP model
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表 1 判断矩阵标度及其含义
Table 1. Judgment matrix scale and its meaning
标度值 含义 1 表示两个因素相比，具有相同重要性 3 表示两个因素相比，前者比后者稍重要 5 表示两个因素相比，前者比后者明显重要 7 表示两个因素相比，前者比后者强烈重要 9 表示两个因素相比，前者比后者极端重要 2,4,6,8 表示上述相邻判断的中间值 倒数 与上述影响情况相反 
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表 2 评价因子分级及CF值
Table 2. Classification of evaluation factors and CF values of each grade
指标因子 分级 面积/km2 灾害点数/个 点密度/（个·km-2） CF值 高程/m 222～325 7.277 0 0 −1 >325～407 4.458 6 1.345986 0.297557 >407～488 4.587 10 2.179932 0.566281 >488～581 3.609 4 1.10834 0.146942 >581～790 1.451 0 0 −1 坡度/（°） 0～10 2.962 0 0 −1 >10～20 4.497 0 0 −1 >20～30 6.335 3 0.473552 −0.49914 >30～40 4.993 11 2.202996 0.570822 >40 2.595 6 2.312406 0.591128 地形起伏度/m 152～285 1.067 0 0 −1 286～362 6.290 2 0.31796 −0.66371 363～439 6.170 3 0.486192 −0.48577 440～526 5.431 15 2.762126 0.657699 527～672 2.440 0 −1 坡向/（°） 平面 0.002 0 0 −1 北 2.435 3 1.231831 0.23246 东北 6.026 10 1.659613 0.430302 东 5.409 5 0.924385 −0.02231 东南 3.192 1 0.313254 −0.66868 南 1.951 1 0.512505 −0.45794 西南 0.556 0 0 −1 西 0.943 0 0 −1 西北 0.868 0 0 −1 地层 J3p1 0.208 0 0 −1 Kjd1 13.538 11 0.81254 −0.14061 Kjd2 3.333 5 1.500285 0.369801 J3p2 4.086 4 0.978953 0.034193 归一化植被指数 −0.0897～0.0962 1.485 0 0 −1 0.0963～0.2405 2.528 0 0 −1 0.2406～0.3432 3.047 4 1.312982 0.2799 0.3433～0.419 6.817 7 1.026905 0.079293 0.4191～0.534 7.309 9 1.231375 0.232177 距道路距离/m 0～50 2.858 6 2.099076 0.549574 >50～100 2.863 5 1.746481 0.458638 >100～150 2.856 4 1.400707 0.324999 >150～200 2.806 3 1.069061 0.115599 >200～250 2.646 1 0.377929 −0.60028 >250 7.127 1 0.14031 −0.8516 距河流距离/m 0～100 5.868 0 0 −1 >100～200 2.928 3 1.024695 0.077307 >200～300 2.878 8 2.779515 0.659841 >300～400 2.824 8 2.832661 0.666223 400～500 2.713 1 0.36865 −0.61009 >500 3.933 0 −1 降雨量/mm 0～800 5.108 4 1.379483 −0.17168 >800～900 8.063 5 0.620109 −0.34413 >900～1000 7.974 11 0.783162 0.314614
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表 3 中间层（B）判断矩阵
Table 3. Judgment matrix for intermediate layer （B）
易发性 诱发因素B2 自然因素B1 权重 诱发因素B2 1 0.3333 0.25 自然因素B1 3 1 0.75
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表 4 指标层（B1）判断矩阵
Table 4. Judgment matrix for indicator layer （B1）
自然因素B1 高程C1 坡度C2 坡向C3 地形起伏度C4 地层岩性C5 归一化植被指数 C6 权重 高程C1 1 0.3333 3 0.3333 0.25 3 0.1017 坡度C2 3 1 5 0.5 0.3333 3 0.1815 坡向C3 0.3333 0.2 1 0.2 0.2 2 0.0543 地形起伏度C4 3 2 5 1 0.5 4 0.247 地层岩性C5 4 3 5 2 1 5 0.3673 NDVI C6 0.3333 0.3333 0.5 0.25 0.2 1 0.0482
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表 5 指标层（B2）判断矩阵
Table 5. Judgment matrix for indicator layer （B2）
诱发因素B2 降雨C7 距河流距离C8 距道路距离C9 权重 降雨量C7 1 3 1 0.4286 距河流距离C8 0.3333 1 0.3333 0.1429 距道路距离C9 1 3 1 0.4286
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表 6 各因子的权重
Table 6. Influence weight of each factor
备选方案 地层岩性C5 地形起伏度C4 坡度C2 降雨量C7 距道路距离C9 高程C1 坡向C3 NDVI C6 距河流距离C8 权重 0.2755 0.1852 0.1361 0.1071 0.1071 0.0763 0.0407 0.0361 0.0357
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表 7 易发性评价结果
Table 7. Summary table of geohazard susceptibility for three models
易发性等级 CF AHP CF-AHP 栅格数 百分比/% 栅格数 百分比/% 栅格数 百分比/% 极低易发区 4482 19.4278 4156 18.0147 4826 20.9189 低易发区 6934 30.0564 7105 30.7976 8028 34.7984 中易发区 8409 36.4499 7853 34.0399 7029 30.4681 高易发区 3245 14.0659 3956 17.1478 3187 13.8145
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表 8 地质灾害易发性评价结果检验
Table 8. Verification of geohazards susceptibility assessment results
易发性等级 灾害点百分比/% CF AHP CF-AHP 极低易发区 0 0 0 低易发区 0 5 0 中易发区 25 25 15 高易发区 75 70 85
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