Assessment of landslide susceptibility in the Huangshui River Basin based on catastrophe theory
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摘要:
湟水河流域是黄河上游重要支流，是青海省政治经济文化中心，也是全省地质灾害高发区域。流域内灾害种类多，发生频率高，经济损失和人员伤亡较大。流域内地质灾害分布有一定地域特征，通过对湟水河流域地形地貌、地质岩组、地质构造、水文气象、人类工程活动分析，构建了地质灾害易发性划分标准，将湟水河流域崩滑灾害易发性分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区、极低易发区5个等级。基于MATLAB编程的突变级数理论平台，充分考虑了各评价因子的内在关系，将单点灾害危险性评价扩展到区域灾害易发性评价。通过ROC对评价结果验证表明，该方法准确率高，可为地质灾害防治提供理论支持。
Abstract:The Huangshui River Basin, an important upstream tributary of the upper reaches of the Yellow River, serves as the political, economic, and cultural center of Qinghai Province, and is also a region with a high incidence of geological disasters. Within this basin, various types of disasters occur frequently, resulting in significant economic losses and casualties. These disasters also exhibit distinct regional characteristics. Based on the analysis of landform, geological rock group, geological structure, hydrometeorology and human engineering activities in the Huangshui River Basin, the comprehensive classification standard of geological disaster susceptibility was established, and the susceptibility of landslide disaster in the Huangshui River Basin was categorized into five levels: extremely high, high, medium, low and very low. Using a matlab-based platform for catastrophe theory, the inherent relationships among various assessment factors are fully considered, and the single-point disaster risk evaluation is extended to regional disaster susceptibility evaluation. Validation of the assessment results through ROC analysis demonstrates the high accuracy of this method, providing theoretical support for geological disaster prevention and control.
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Key words:
- Huangshui River Basin /
- landslide disasters /
- catastrophe series theory /
- risk assessment
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表 1 初等突变类型
Table 1. Primary mutation types
类型 控制变量 势函数 归一化公式 折迭型 1 
尖点型 2 
燕尾型 3 
蝴蝶型 4 
注：x为状态变量，即中间层C1、C2······C6；u、v、w、t为控制变量，即最底层D1、D2······D12。 
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表 2 湟水河流域崩滑灾害危险度评价逐层结构模型
Table 2. Layer-by-layer structure model for landslide hazard assessment in the Huangshui River Basin
目标层 突变模型 准则层 突变模型 中间层 突变模型 最底层 灾害点
危险度（
）尖点型 地质
因素（
）蝴蝶型 地貌（ 
）折迭型 地貌（ 
）地形（ 
）蝴蝶型 坡度（ 
）高程（ 
）平面曲率（ 
）剖面曲率（ 
）工程地质岩组（ 
）折迭型 工程地质岩组（ 
）地质构造（ 
）折迭型 距离断层（ 
）环境
因素（
）尖点型 水文气象（ 
）燕尾型 参率平均降水量（ 
）距离水系（ 
）TWI（ 
）人类工程活动（ 
）尖点型 距离公路（ 
）距离城镇（ 
）
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表 3 评价因子无量纲处理结果表
Table 3. Dimensionless processing results of evaluation factors
点号 
1 0.277 0.173 0.216 0.992 0.899 0.365 0.712 0.423 0.993 0.179 0.923 0.954 2 0.277 0.056 0.489 0.919 0.918 0.470 0.773 0.621 0.799 0.268 0.809 0.974 3 0.277 0.241 0.881 0.901 0.983 0.470 0.872 0.679 0.950 0.122 0.982 0.949 4 0.181 0.356 0.429 0.291 0.416 0.365 0.674 0.648 0.875 0.499 0.900 0.941 5 0.277 0.663 0.774 0.591 0.438 0.365 0.779 0.701 0.850 0.057 0.987 0.899 
1 171 0.181 0.475 0.595 0.594 0.652 0.365 0.876 0.062 0.861 0.209 0.813 0.991
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表 4 湟水河流域崩滑灾害点危险度计算结果表
Table 4. Calculation results of landslide hazard at various points in the Huangshui River Basin
灾害点序号 灾害点危险度 1 0.961506589 2 0.962988553 3 0.96876408 4 0.954702401 5 0.965770092 
1171 0.958959487
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表 5 崩滑灾害危险性评价指标划分标准
Table 5. Division standard of landslide hazard evaluation index
突变级数 0～0.883 >0.883～0.901 >0.901～0.916 >0.916～0.943 风险等级 轻度危险 中度
危险重度
危险极度
危险
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表 6 崩滑灾害危险性评价结果
Table 6. Risk assessment results of rockfall disasters
灾害点编号 突变级数 危险性评价
（突变结果）1 0.961506589 极度危险 2 0.962988553 极度危险 3 0.968764080 极度危险 4 0.954702401 极度危险 5 0.965770092 极度危险 
1 171 0.958959487 极度危险
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表 7 突变理论模型危险性分区统计表
Table 7. Statistical table of hazard zoning using catastrophe theory model
序号 崩滑灾害
易发分区面积/km2 占比/% 1 极低易发区 152.68 0.90 2 低易发区 1 912.61 11.80 3 中易发区 3 862.13 23.99 4 高易发区 5 511.44 34.23 5 极高易发区 4 661.79 28.95
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表 8 AUC值评判依据
Table 8. Criteria for AUC value evaluation
AUC值 >0.9～1 >0.8～0.9 >0.7～0.8 >0.6～0.7 0.5～0.6 评判标准 相当好 很好 好 差 极差
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