宁波市地面沉降现状分析及风险评价

高峰; 赵团芝; 王文军; 章旬立; 郑凌逶

doi:10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202210035

宁波市地面沉降现状分析及风险评价

1.
宁波市自然资源生态修复和海洋管理服务中心，浙江宁波　315000

2.
浙大宁波理工学院土木建筑工程学院，浙江宁波　315100

基金项目: 浙江省自然科学基金项目（LY19E080013；LQ19E080009）；浙江省建设科研项目（2022K112）；闽北山地地质灾害防治福建省高校工程研究中心开放基金项目（WYERC2020—1）

详细信息

作者简介: 高　峰（1971-），男，安徽黄山人，本科，高级工程师，主要从事地质灾害预报与防治工作。 E-mail：gf_ep398@126.com

中图分类号: P642.26

收稿日期: 2022-10-22

修回日期: 2023-04-22

录用日期: 2023-09-05

刊出日期: 2023-12-25

Analysis and risk evaluation of current land subsidence in Ningbo City

1.
Ningbo Administration and Service Centre for Marine and Ecological Restoration of Natural Resources, Ningbo, Zhejiang　315000, China

2.
School of Civil Engineering & Architecture, Ningbo Tech University, Ningbo, Zhejiang　315100, China

Received Date: 22 October 2022

Revised Date: 22 April 2023

Accepted Date: 05 September 2023

Publish Date: 25 December 2023

摘要

摘要:
针对宁波市地面沉降发展现状及风险评价需求，结合2017—2020年的InSAR遥感监测数据与沉降点监测数据，对近年地面沉降特征进行了分析。在此基础上建立了包括地面高程、沉降易发程度、地面累计沉降量、沉降速率、城市人口密度、建设用地占比重等6个评价因子为主的地面沉降风险评价体系。其中沉降易发程度为综合考虑地质条件、水文地质条件、人为活动影响后的综合性评价因子。地面沉降风险评价结果表明：宁波市地面沉降无高易发区，中、低易发区主要与区内全新世软土层厚大、历史上大量开采地下水、局部高强度城市建设以及沿海围垦工程等因素有关。最后，划分了地面沉降中风险区、低风险区、风险防控带，并提出了相应的地面沉降风险区管控建议。
- 地面沉降 /
- 遥感监测 /
- 易发程度 /
- 风险区划 /
- 管控建议
Abstract:
In response to evaluating the current status and assessing the risk assessment requirements of land subsidence in Ningbo City, the characteristics of land subsidence in recent years were analyzed using InSAR remote sensing monitoring data and subsidence point monitoring data from 2017 to 2020. Based on this analysis, a land subsidence risk assessment system has been developed, primarily consisting of six evaluation factors, including ground elevation, susceptibility to subsidence, cumulative ground subsidence, subsidence rate, urban population density, and the proportion of construction land usage. The susceptibility to subsidence is a comprehensive evaluation factor that takes into account geological conditions, hydrogeological conditions, and the impact of human activities. The results of the land subsidence risk assessment indicate that there are no high-risk susceptibility zones for land subsidence in Ningbo City. Medium and low-risk susceptibility zones are primarily associated with factors such as the thick layers of the Holocene soft soil, historical excessive groundwater extraction, localized high-intensity urban development, and coastal land reclamation projects within the region. Finally, the areas were categorized into medium-risk, low-risk, and risk prevention zones, along with corresponding control recommendations for land subsidence risk management.
- land subsidence /
- remote sensing monitoring /
- susceptible level /
- risk zonation /
- control recommendations

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图 1 宁波市地面沉降速率概况

Figure 1.

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图 2 宁波市地面沉降速率图

Figure 2.

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图 3 宁波市地面沉降风险评价体系

Figure 3.

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图 4 宁波市城市人口密度栅格数据图

Figure 4.

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图 5 宁波市地面沉降风险区划图

Figure 5.

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表 1 地面沉降风险区划影响因素数据来源

Table 1. Data sources of influencing factors for land subsidence risk zoning

序号	沉降带名称	沉降中心
1	杭州湾—泗门沉降带	前湾新区余姚泗门
2	龙山—澥浦—招宝山沉降带	镇海化工区
3	新碶—霞浦—大榭沉降带	新碶大榭沿海区域
4	瞻岐—春晓—梅山沉降带	大嵩新区、春晓梅山围填海区
5	余姚凤山—阳明— 河姆渡沉降带	凤山、阳明街道
6	骆驼—庄桥—洪塘— 高桥—集士港沉降带	骆驼、庄桥、洪塘街道、高桥、集士港镇
7	东部—鄞南—江口— 西坞沉降带	高新区、东部新城、南部商务区、江口、西坞街道
8	环象山港沉降带	奉化莼湖、松岙、象山西周、贤庠
9	新桥—东陈—丹城— 大徐沉降带	新桥、大目湾新城、大徐
10	长街—高塘—南田沉降带	南部滨海新区、象山高塘、南田

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表 2 地面沉降风险区划影响因素权重及分级

Table 2. Weight and classification of factors influencing land subsidence risk zoning

影响因素		权重（a_j）	影响因素分级及分值（b_j）
影响因素		权重（a_j）	3	2	1
地质条件	地面高程/m	0.2	<2	2～4	>4
地质条件	易发程度	0.1	高易发	中易发	低易发
沉降特征	地面累计沉降量/mm	0.2	>1 000	500～1 000	<500
沉降特征	沉降速率/（mm·a⁻¹）	0.3	>40	20～40	<20
社会经济发展指标	城市人口密度/（万人·km⁻²）	0.1	0.2	0.1～<0.2	<0.1
社会经济发展指标	建设用地比重/%	0.1	>60	30～60	<30

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表 3 地面沉降风险区等级划分表

Table 3. Classification table of land subsidence risk zone levels

风险区等级	高风险区	中风险区	低风险区
地面沉降综合风险指数（W）	>2.5～3.0	1.5～2.5	<1.5

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表 4 地面沉降风险区划影响因素数据来源

Table 4. Data sources of influencing factors for land subsidence risk zoning

数据名称	单位	数据来源
地面高程	m	2019年宁波市各区县高程数字模型（1∶10 000 DEM）
易发程度		依据《地质灾害危险性评估规范》（DB33/T 881—2012）的计算结果
地面累计沉降量	mm	InSAR遥感监测数据与沉降点监测数据
沉降速率	mm·a⁻¹	InSAR遥感监测数据与沉降点监测数据
城市人口密度	万人·km⁻²	宁波市统计年鉴（2020）
建设用地比重	%	第三次全国国土调查成果（2020）

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表 5 宁波市地面沉降风险区管控建议一览表

Table 5. Summary of control recommendations for ground subsidence risk zones in Ningbo City

风险区等级	面积/km²	管控建议
地面沉降中风险区	132.6	①严格执行地下水禁、限采区管理要求； ②进一步完善“空天地一体化”监测网络，提高地下水位、地面沉降监测频率，提高围填海区域的监测点密度； ③加强重大工程建设项目地面沉降综合防治方案制定； ④加强地面沉降网络和数据库建设，形成与城市线状市政工程建设、运营单位的沉降监测数据共享，各方协同防治沉降的机制
地面沉降低风险区	2 214.8	①继续严格贯彻地下水禁、限采区管理要求； ②进一步完善和优化地面沉降和地下水监测网络，加强日常监管； ③合理布局城市建设规划，加强深基坑等工程建设活动引发的地面沉降监测与管理
地面沉降风险防控带		①加强高铁、轨道交通沿线两侧的地下水开发利用及邻近工程降排水管理； ②推进沿线地面沉降监测及系统预警机制建设，加强建设与重大工程密切相关的浅部含水层地下水监测井，完善地面沉降监测网络。

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